Domestic trend of API 5CT oil casing

　　Domestic steel prices remained weak overall, falling steadily. Due to the arrival of API 5CT oil casing in July, the inventory of steel plant agents increased significantly. At the same time, in August, the spot market was sluggish, the intermediate demand was lacking, the downstream construction was slow, the market transaction was very cold, only sporadic procurement, and the merchants' shipment was not smooth. In addition, the futures and other forward markets continued to decline, depressing market confidence and causing some pessimism.

　　China has a steel-making capacity of nearly 1 billion tons, and the capacity utilization rate is only 72%, which is significantly lower than the normal level. The oil casing pipe blank industry is facing the situation of "high cost, low price, low enterprise profitability". It is expected that China's steel production and demand will continue to grow this year, but the growth rate will fall. In the case of declining demand growth and difficult to effectively improve the supply and demand fundamentals, the domestic steel market price will still run at a low level this year, and the price of api5ct oil casing is monopolized, which will be easy to rise but difficult to fall. Despite the structural adjustment of the steel industry, the construction demand of small and medium-sized towns is enough to support the growth of steel consumption.

　　CISA predicts that China's macro economy will not slow down significantly in the future, but the growth pace of the steel industry will slow down, and the growth rate of crude steel output will fall this year. At the same time, the popularity of eliminating backward production capacity at this stage can not solve this problem immediately, but it is not very obvious. Overall, the market continued to weaken and adjust last week. Terminal wait-and-see sentiment is strong, agent inventory pressure still exists, market confidence is insufficient. The short-term decline of the oil casing Market is difficult to change, and it is expected that the market quotation will be slightly disordered today. In addition, the business capital pressure is too big, the business will be strong, so the market price shock lower. In the near future, API 5CT oil casing is not supported by favorable supporting factors, and the market price may be difficult to change the weak situation in the short term. However, with the arrival of March, it is expected that businesses will not be willing to reduce, and the adjustment range is not large. In terms of raw materials, yesterday Tangshan billet prices rose 10 yuan / ton. At present, the turnover of Tangshan finished products is general, but recently, the billet has fallen to the psychological price of the downstream and businesses, and the phenomenon of bargain hunting has increased. Steel mills take the opportunity to pull up. At present, the price is at a low level, and the cost pressure is not reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the price of Tangshan billet will be stable and good today.